Chart of the Week: Where does Canadian oil flow in the U.S.?  

When it comes to the impact of the recent events in Venezuela on the Canadian oil industry, the focus has been on the U.S. Gulf Coast. That’s because Canada’s heavy oil barrels could compete more with Venezuela's heavy oil in that market if there is a jump in Venezuela's production.

So how much Canadian oil is sent to that market? About 10% of U.S.-bound exports of Canadian crude are sent to PADD 3 on the Gulf Coast - the location of the largest refinery center in the U.S. Keystone XL, cancelled by President Obama and then again by President Biden, would have brought more Canadian crude to PADD 3.

Less concerning is the U.S. Midwest (PADD 2), where Canada has a location and pipeline advantage over Venezuela. Nearly two-thirds of Canadian oil (primarily from the oil sands) exported to the U.S. ends up at Midwest refineries. With TMX now complete, the West Coast (PADD 5) has increased its share from 8% in 2023 to about 10% this year.