According to the latest Business Barometer® report from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), the long-term small business optimism index for Alberta held fairly steady in September, going from 55.6 the month before to 55.9.*

The long-term index is roughly where it was the previous September and has been above 50 since June.

The short-term index, which asks small business owners about how they expect their business to perform over the next three or four months, pulled back by 1.5 points in September to 48.9.

Both indexes were above the average set over the previous 12 months.

Insufficient demand (mentioned by 52% of respondents) and a shortage of skilled labour (cited by 34% of respondents) were the top two limitations on business growth identified by Alberta small business owners in September.

Small business sentiment weakened somewhat nationally, with the long-term index falling from  56.9 in August to 55.0 in September. According to the CFIB, this is “a good reading for the past 12 months but modest when compared to the historical average.”

The national short-term index also weakened, falling from 52.0 in August to 50.3 in September. Despite the decline, the short-term index remained above the 12-month average.

While it would be great to see a higher level of confidence about the future in the small business sector, September’s readings are relatively strong given the sluggish economic growth that has accompanied the battle against inflation. As short-term interest rates continue to come down (our forecast sees the Bank of Canada taking its policy rate down to 2.75% next year) and economic growth picks up, we anticipate that small business confidence will improve.

*The data reflect responses received from September 3 to 16. Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index above 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be stronger outnumber those expecting weaker performance. An index level near 65 normally indicates that the economy is growing at its potential. The long-term optimism index is based on how businesses expect to be performing in 12 months while the short-term optimism index is based on how businesses expect to be performing in 3 months.

Answer to the previous trivia question: As of July 1, 2024, 15% of Alberta’s population was aged 65 or over.

Today’s trivia question: How many centenarians (a centenarian is a person who is 100 years old or older) were there in Alberta as of July 1, 2024?