As we inch ever closer to 2025, we have some hot news about…2023?

As the kids would say, “that’s so yesterday.”

Readers of The Twenty-Four will know that we talk a lot about gross domestic product (GDP) because it provides a measure of an economy’s economic output.

Calculating GDP, however, is not easy, there are different ways of doing it, and the information needed takes time to come in. It would be nice to add up all the receipts of transactions in the economy, but that’s not technically possible and probably not worth the time.

At ATB Economics, we pride ourselves on simplifying things. But there’s no way around it—this one is a bit messy. So here we go.

Each spring, Statistics Canada publishes provincial-level GDP estimates known as the “by industry” series. Then, in the fall, it publishes a different set of estimates known as the “by expenditure” series. The latter is the most frequently cited measure of overall GDP growth at the provincial level and the one we use for forecasting purposes.

Still with us? Almost at the punchline.

What this means is that the estimate of our “official” reading for Alberta’s GDP growth last year has changed from 1.5% (based on the “by industry” series released in May) to 2.3% (based on the “by expenditure” series released today). Note that the “by industry” data have also been revised, which translates into $7.8 billion more real economic output in Alberta in 2023 than previously thought. That’s still below population growth of 3.9%, but much higher than previous estimates.

The new numbers also show that Alberta’s real GDP growth last year was tied with Saskatchewan for the second highest increase among the provinces after B.C. and not, as the previous data indicated, in fifth spot.

All told, Alberta’s economy performed reasonably well considering the headwinds generated by high inflation and elevated interest rates. The year prior, Alberta’s economy grew by 6%, second fastest among the provinces.

The provincial rankings point to real differences in economic performance that help us understand where growth is occurring and why.

According to the latest numbers, household consumption and exports were responsible for the rise in Alberta’s GDP in 2023, largely offsetting a pullback in business investment.  

And not to brag (ok, a little bragging), our original forecast for Alberta’s GDP growth in 2023 of 2.5% was almost bang on today’s revised estimate, but we adjusted it downward in light of the data from Statistics Canada that came out in May.

More to come in this week’s The Seven.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of goods and services produced within a country's borders by both citizens and non-citizens. Gross national product (GNP) is the value of goods and services produced by a country's citizens both domestically and abroad.

Today’s trivia question: Which province had the higher level of GDP last year: Alberta or British Columbia?