As we’ve noted in this space, Alberta is in the midst of a significant population boom.

But will it continue?

New population projections show that, although growth slows relative to the blistering pace set over the last two years, Alberta’s population expands in all ten of the scenarios put forward by Statistics Canada.

Between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2048, Alberta is projected to add between 1.48 million people in the low-growth scenario and 3.21 million people in the high-growth scenario. This translates into an average annual growth rate of between 1.2% and 2.2%.

In the commonly-cited M2 scenario for medium-growth, Alberta adds 2.5 million residents for an average annual growth rate of 1.8%.

Under that same medium-growth scenario, Alberta accounts for 23.6% of Canada’s total growth between 2024 and 2048 and records the largest annual percentage change of any province or territory (see the chart below).* The stronger population growth in Alberta stems from a steady stream of net interprovincial migration and higher natural increase.

*Alberta has the highest average annual percentage change in seven of the ten scenarios.

Using the same M2 scenario, natural increase (birth less deaths) accounts for 19.4% of Alberta population growth from now to 2048, net international migration for 54.3% and net interprovincial movements for 26.3%. In all but one scenario, Alberta is a net recipient of interprovincial migrants over the projection period.

Answer to the previous trivia question: In the context of money supply, M1 refers to highly liquid forms of money such as physical currency and the money in chequing accounts.

Today’s trivia question: Which province is projected to have the highest percentage of seniors in 2048?