One day away from U.S. President Trump’s “liberation day” announcements, we take a quick look at how North American crude oil prices have fared so far in 2025 amid tariff headwinds.  

Early in the year, supply concerns rose as U.S. sanctions targeting over 180 Russian crude vessels pushed the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) towards US$80 around mid-January.

Momentum, however, quickly faded as tariff threats by President Trump raised demand concerns. Markets turned further bearish with OPEC+ members announcing their plans to increase output by an additional 138,000 barrels per day in April to support lower energy prices.

The WTI slumped to an average of US$68 in March, down 16% from the same month in 2024. In our recently released outlook, we expect the ongoing trade war to dampen global fuel demand moving ahead and the WTI to average US$68 both this year and in 2026. So far this year, WTI has averaged US$71 year-to-date (YTD).

Canadian crude prices have been on a slightly different trajectory since last year. Aided by the additional pipeline capacity from the Trans Mountain Expansion, the WTI-Western Canada Select (WCS) differential averaged around US$13 since mid-last year.

Recently, the differential tightened further as producers rushed to increase sales in order to avoid any potential tariffs on energy products as well as seasonal maintenance-related shutdowns by oil sands producers. In addition, the U.S. is curtailing U.S. crude imports from Venezuela, which is likely supporting demand for Canadian heavy crude (Venezuela produces a heavy crude with similar density and sulfur qualities as Canadian oil sands). U.S. imports from Mexico have also been trending lower since January, contributing to a narrower differential. As a result, the WTI-WCS differential averaged near US$11 in March, over US$3 narrower than last year. The differential has averaged US$12.5 YTD.

Looking ahead, we expect the differential to widen to an average of $US14/bbl this year and $US15 next year, as producers absorb some of the tariff hit.

Answer to the previous trivia question: It depends how you measure it, but in terms of units sold last year, Toyota was the world’s largest automaker at 10.8 million.

Today’s trivia question: Which Fortune 500 company was launched on April 1st?