New vehicle sales provide an indication of how a large slice of the retail sector is doing. They also provide a sense of how the economy is doing overall, with higher sales suggesting things are going well enough for more people and businesses to make a major purchase like a new vehicle. (Interest rates are also a factor with lower borrowing costs facilitating sales and vice versa.)

So what are the new vehicle sales statistics telling us about how things are going in Alberta?

On the bright side, the recent trend has a nice upward slope (see the chart below). The number of new vehicles sold in Alberta has increased 20 times (on a year-over-year basis) between January 2021 and September 2024.

Despite signs of consumer fatigue setting in (retail sales in Alberta have been fairly flat with per capita sales declining), the number of new cars being sold points to some underlying resilience in the provincial economy.

But, as the chart above also shows, relative to the years leading up to the pandemic, the number of units rolling off lots in Alberta in 2024 does not appear especially strong. Unit sales between January and September 2024 were, for example, 8% lower than over the same period in 2018 even though Alberta’s population was 14% larger.

Although it is a positive sign that new vehicles sales are on the rise in Alberta, because they are down relative to past periods, this suggests two things: 1) there is likely more room for them to climb back up as the provincial economy expands next year (lower interest rates will also help): and 2) even though Alberta’s economy is performing well vis-à-vis the country as a whole, it has lost a few steps since the last boom cycle period in 2014.

Answer to the previous trivia question: The Home Depot’s head office is located in Atlanta, Georgia.

Today’s trivia question: What is the name of Europe’s largest retailer (by revenue)?