We often refer to the rollercoaster ride that is crude oil prices, but this analogy also works well for major crop prices in Alberta over the last few years.

Spurred on by poor growing conditions and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, crop prices around the world spiked in 2022.

In June of that year, the average price received by Alberta farmers for wheat, barley, and canola (Alberta’s three largest crops) reached all-time highs.

As the chart below shows, prices have fallen over the last two years. As of September 2024, the average price for all three crops was almost 45% lower than the peak reached in 2022.

Compared to their five-year averages, the price of wheat in September was down by 15%, the price of barley by 23%, and the price of canola by 13%.

Rising supply from better global growing conditions and Ukrainian crops getting to market despite the war help explain the price moderation.

What’s next for crop prices in Alberta will depend on a wide range of factors including whether or not China imposes tariffs on Canadian canola in retaliation for Canada’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and batteries, future growing conditions, and geopolitical developments such as the war in Ukraine and U.S. agriculture and trade policy under the incoming Trump Administration.

Cattle prices in Alberta, on the other hand, remain well above their five-year averages. The price received for cattle for slaughter in Alberta in September was 38% higher than the five-average and 49% higher for cattle for feeding.

The higher prices have been supported by a relatively small North American cattle herd. According to Farm Credit Canada, “Canada's beef cow and replacement heifer herd has been on a downward trend since its peak 20 years ago, and as of July 1, 2024, it was the smallest since 1987.”

The smaller herd size should help keep a floor under prices in the near term as it will take time for cattle numbers to recover.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Alberta's official fish is the bull trout.

Today’s trivia question: What are Alberta's official colours?