According to new Statistics Canada survey data, non-residential capital spending* in Alberta this year is expected to reach its highest level since 2014.

Based on what organizations say they intend to spend in 2025, annual capital investment in the province will rise by 8.2% to $79 billion—a significant improvement over the 1.1% increase in 2024.

It is important to note that the survey was conducted from September 2024 to January 2025 before the February 1 Executive Order by President Trump that proposes broad-based tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

According to the survey, more than half (56%) of the aggregate increase this year is coming from the oil and gas extraction industry where investment is expected to jump 11% to $33.6 billion—the highest since 2015.

A 70% spike in chemical manufacturing capital spending to $3.4 billion accounts for almost a quarter of the total increase this year, likely driven by Dow’s massive Path2Zero project under construction in Fort Saskatchewan. That’s the most investment in Alberta’s chemical manufacturing sector on record.

A third major gain expected this year is from the information and cultural industries sector (which includes industries like technology and film), up by 73% from 2024.

In our December forecast for Alberta, we were also expecting investment gains this year, driven by manufacturing and oil and gas. While this survey is directionally consistent with that outlook, it points to even stronger gains than the 5% we were assuming for this year. 

At the national level, non-residential capital spending in Canada is expected to increase by 5.5% this year led by manufacturing, utilities, and public administration. Alberta accounts for 29% of the expected rise in national investment.

These are, however, intentions so things could change as businesses react to global events, namely the threat of U.S. tariffs. If Trump’s tariffs proceed as outlined in the February 1 Executive Order, and they persist through the year, we anticipate a pullback in business investment and economic growth in our latest scenario.

This doesn’t mean that it is all downside risk. Investment could move even higher if broad-based tariffs do not proceed or are in place for a very short period. In the oil and gas industry, additional increases in pipeline capacity and increased demand for natural gas could spur more investment than currently projected.

*The Capital and Repair Expenditures Survey is based on a sample survey of 27,000 businesses, governments and institutions. The survey on preliminary estimates for 2024 and intentions for 2025 was conducted from September 2024 to January 2025.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Yuval Noah Harari is the author who said “The most important question in 21st-century economics may well be: What should we do with all the superfluous people, once we have highly intelligent non-conscious algorithms that can do almost everything better than humans?”

Today’s trivia question: What is the central bank of Germany called?