It’s often the case that the story told by an economic indicator doesn’t change that much from one reading to the next. That is the case at the moment with benchmark resale home prices in Canada.*

It was essentially the same story in July (for which we just got new data) as in June with year-over-year (y/y) benchmark prices continuing to increase in Calgary and Edmonton and decrease in Toronto.

Although prices were up in cities such as St. Johns, Montreal, Winnipeg, and Saskatoon, pullbacks in a number of key Ontario and BC markets pulled the national benchmark down by 4% compared to July 2023.

In Calgary, the benchmark price in July came in at $580,200 (+8% y/y)—the 47th y/y increase in a row!

It was $391,300 (+7% y/y) in Edmonton—the 10th consecutive y/y improvement.

Toronto’s benchmark was much higher than Calgary’s and Edmonton’s in absolute terms at $1.1 million, but fell for the 4th reading in a row, down 5% y/y.

Another notoriously high-price market—Vancouver—saw its benchmark fall on a y/y basis for the first time since last summer. At a whopping $1.2 million, it was nonetheless down 1% y/y.

Although the overall story is the same—rising prices in Calgary and Edmonton combined with pullbacks in key markets in Ontario and BC—its three main themes remain important to the broader economic story unfolding in Alberta and Canada.

First, housing markets are local. Trends in the Canadian economy do not always apply to specific parts of the country. In this case, the national resale home price benchmark is waning, but waxing in numerous other markets, including here in Alberta.

Second, demographics matter. While home prices are affected by a wide range of factors, the increasing levels in Calgary and Edmonton point to strong population growth and the accompanying economic boost it provides. This boost is evident in the construction sector with housing starts on the rise in Calgary and Edmonton.

Third, the price gap has narrowed, but remains wide. Although benchmark prices have been rising in Calgary and Edmonton, actual prices remain significantly below higher-priced markets such as Vancouver and Toronto and will continue to help draw residents to Alberta and retain those already here.

*The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) model is used by the Canadian Real Estate Association to calculate benchmark prices in key Canadian resale markets. A composite benchmark home is one whose attributes are typical of homes traded in the area where it is located and includes single family homes, townhouse/row units and apartment units.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Calgary (lat. 51.04 N is just slightly more south than London (U.K.) (lat. 51.50 N).

Today’s trivia question: How many of Canada’s 41 Census Metropolitan Areas have a population over one million?