The pace has slowed, but the inflows of people to Alberta have been persistent.

We’ve used Gordon Lightfoot’s ‘Alberta Bound’ too many times to count, so we will just say (without a song reference) that people continue to come to Alberta.

In data released this week, Alberta once again led all provinces in population growth in the third quarter of 2024. The province added almost 43,000 people in the three-month period. This represents a quarter-over-quarter growth rate of 0.9%, outpacing all provinces and territories for the fifth straight quarter.   Alberta’s population stood at 4.93 million as of October 1, 2024.

Over the latest one-year period (ending Oct 1, 2024), the population expanded by 3.9%. That’s a slowdown from the previous quarter (4.4%), but still nation-leading and far surpassing the national increase of 2.3%.

Why is Alberta’s population growing so much faster? The short answer is interprovincial migration. Alberta recorded its 13th consecutive quarter of net inflows (that is, more people coming than leaving) from other parts of Canada, with a third quarter tally of 10,810. It’s also the ninth straight quarter that Alberta has led all provinces in interprovincial gains.

The 2022-2024 wave of interprovincial migration looks different than in the past. It’s not the classic energy investment boom, which typically leads to low unemployment and lures people to the province. It’s broader than that, with a range of sectors supporting job growth.

But the real differentiator this time around is housing affordability. We explored this in detail in May, and the trend has continued. This is not to say that many Albertans aren’t struggling with affordability (prices have jumped since 2021 and inflation has been running hotter than the national average as of late). Rather, it’s that housing remains relatively more affordable than in other markets—namely B.C. and Ontario, where many folks are coming from (see chart). A stunning 72% of net interprovincial migrants over the last year were added from B.C. and Ontario, a much higher share than the last two energy-driven migration waves (2004-08 and 2011-2014).

In addition, there is a high share of remote workers who are now working out of province but live in Alberta. The remote work trend, accelerating after the pandemic, allows for physical separation between place of work and place of residence, even if that happens to be in another province. That doesn’t completely explain the influx (out of province remote workers have actually fallen since 2022), but it’s one piece of the puzzle. 

On the international front, we’re seeing some early signs that inflows of temporary residents are easing, with the federal government reducing its targets. The increase in non-permanent residents was 11,662—the smallest since the second quarter of 2022. Net permanent immigration remained strong at 15,582 last quarter.

In our economic outlook released yesterday, we are expecting Alberta’s annual population growth to slow in 2025 by more than half to 1.9%, primarily due to a pullback in international migration. Homebuilders are trying to keep pace with frenzied demand and, impressively, home starts surged last month to the highest since 2007. While slower population growth will provide some breathing room, we expect ‘catch-up’ construction to continue and are forecasting 45,600 housing starts next year. For the labour market, we see a slower pace of population subtracting from economic growth (less spending in the economy), while also putting downward pressure on the unemployment rate (due to a slowdown in the number of job seekers).

Bottom line: Alberta’s population growth has grown at a frenzied pace over the last 2-3 years. Expect the pace to slow dramatically next year, but stay hotter in Alberta than in the country as a whole.

As 2024 slides into our collective rearview mirror, our trivia questions for the rest of December are looking back at the most important economic trends of the year. Enjoy our 12 Days of Economic Trivia for 2024.

Answer to the previous trivia question: In July, a wildfire ravaged the Town of Jasper, claiming 358 of the town's 1,113 structures, including many homes and was listed first on Environment Canada’s 10 most impactful weather stories of 2024. Jasper National Park attendance in August 2023 totalled over 473,000 compared to zero in August 2024 when the park was closed due to the fire.

Today’s trivia question: Potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods have been making headlines since Donald Trump became President-Elect. What was the total value of Alberta’s merchandise exports to the U.S. last year?