Most of us have other things to do than ponder what it takes to produce millions of barrels of oil each day in Alberta, but it is a complex and truly massive undertaking.

One element of this that does not get a lot of attention outside industry circles is the need to maintain the equipment and facilities involved to ensure safety, conduct repairs, replace equipment, enhance efficiency, and meet environmental standards.

Because maintenance often involves temporarily shutting down or slowing production, it can affect overall output and this was the case in Alberta in September.

After setting ten year-over-year* records in a row, oil production in Alberta slipped in September, falling 1.4% to 3.82 million barrels per day (b/d) versus 3.87 million b/d a year earlier.

According to RBN Energy, maintenance at Shell’s Scotford Upgrader and Suncor’s Base Plant during the month contributed to the decline.

Year-to-date production, however, was still the highest on record. Output averaged 3.91 million b/d from January to September 2024—4.5% higher than the same period in 2023.

Rising production is one of the main reasons Alberta’s overall economic growth is forecast to be stronger than the national average this year (see our quarterly Alberta Economic Outlook for more).

Higher oil output has been enabled by the start-up of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) this year. While there is some room to bring on even more export capacity through efficiency improvements and crude-by-rail options, future oil production in Alberta will once again bump up against transportation constraints as the TMX fills.

Notwithstanding lots of ups and downs, crude oil prices are tracking close to our forecast with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark averaging US$77 per barrel through October compared to our estimate for the year of US$76. Improved pipeline access helps narrow the light-heavy differential (WTI vs. Western Canada Select), which has averaged US$14.9 per barrel this year, close to our US$15 forecast, and an improvement from US$18 last year.

*Because oil production is seasonal, it’s best to make year-over-year and year-to-date comparisons rather than changes from one month to the next.  Oil production includes conventional, oil sands and condensate production.

Answer to the previous trivia question: The 2020 U.S. presidential election had the highest voter turnout of the 21st century, with 66.8% of citizens 18 years and older voting in the election.

Today’s trivia question: When is the next U.S. Presidential Inauguration Ceremony scheduled for?