The pace of new home construction in Alberta stayed strong in January at just under 46,000 housing starts* (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The January reading comes on the heels of last year’s annual tally of 47,827—the fourth highest on record.

Housing starts can be tricky to interpret because—even after accounting for regular seasonal variation—the monthly data tend to bounce around quite a bit.

As with many other economic indicators, the trick is to look at the long-term trend.

As you can see in the chart above, the trend (as measured by the six-month moving average) in Alberta has, notwithstanding a few minor ups and downs, been on a sharp upward trajectory since the recent low point reached in April 2023. As a result, housing starts in Alberta are back at levels last seen during the housing boom of the mid-2000s.

Even with the high levels of uncertainty accompanying the threat of a trade war with the U.S., past and ongoing population growth in Alberta is expected to support strong residential construction activity going forward.

According to our latest forecast, the gap between supply and demand will keep housing starts in 2025 elevated at 45,600. While down slightly from last year, this is well above the five-year average of about 35,000. Home construction will, in turn, continue to be a key driver of economic growth and employment for Alberta this year.

*A housing start is defined as the beginning of construction work on the building where the dwelling unit will be located. This can be described in two ways: 1) the stage when the concrete has been poured for the whole of the footing around the structure; or 2) an equivalent stage where a basement will not be part of the structure.

Answer to the previous trivia question: The last time Canada’s inflation rate was negative was in May 2020 when it was -0.4%

Today’s trivia question: How many square inches is a standard Major League Baseball home plate?