Today we take a quick look at some recent developments in Alberta’s primary agriculture sector and what may lie ahead.

Crop and livestock prices have trended in opposite directions.  

Prices received by Alberta farmers for wheat (excluding durum), barley and canola continued to decline from their peak in 2022. As a result, crop revenues pulled back by 15% in the first three quarters of 2024 relative to the same time in 2023.

Livestock prices, on the other hand, continued their ascent on shrinking herd sizes. Robust demand from the U.S. and a weaker loonie is expected to push revenues up in the cattle market over last year.

Despite very dry conditions earlier in the year, Calgary and southern Alberta ended up with record precipitation levels. As a result, last year’s final crop report showed that harvest for major crops progressed at a faster pace than their respective five-year and ten-year averages. Preliminary production estimates were, however, largely flat from 2023 levels.

Political uncertainty remains front and center in the sector. Alberta farmers brace for the potential impact of the anti-dumping investigation of Canadian canola announced by the Chinese government in September.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has threatened 25% tariffs on Canadian imports on February 1, which would hurt demand for the province’s agriculture exports to the U.S. ($4.4 billion in 2023), while retaliatory tariffs could raise input costs.

There is a lot that can happen across global and domestic markets this year that will determine the sector's performance this year. But assuming that tariffs are temporary (and a full trade war is avoided), we expect modest gains in export volumes this year, primarily from agri-food processing.

Answer to the previous trivia question: ChatGPT stands for Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer.

Today’s trivia question: What famous “brick” was patented on January 28, 1958?