We now have a fresh new look! Collectively, our daily economic comment, weekly summary and quarterly forecast are now known as The Twenty-Four-Seven. The Owl is now The Twenty-Four. The Weekly Wrap is The Seven. But what hasn't changed is our commitment to delivering the Alberta-focused economic analysis and insight you’ve come to expect from our team of experts.

Finding its stride: New Alberta Economic Outlook released today

Our June economic outlook is out!  Check it out here: Alberta Economic Outlook.

Alberta’s economy is poised to regain its stride in the second half of 2024 and 2025 driven by improved market access for energy, stronger home construction, and continued expansions in emerging sectors. At the same time, households and businesses will continue to feel the drag from previous interest rate hikes and higher costs. The improvement comes after the provincial economy lost momentum last year amid higher interest rates, a slowdown in the energy sector, and drought-related declines in agriculture activity.

According to our latest Alberta Economic Outlook, Alberta's real GDP is forecast to expand by 2.5% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025, outpacing national growth .

Several factors are set to shape Alberta's economic landscape in 2024 and 2025:

Long-awaited market access enables production gains - 2024 is a breakthrough year for market access in Alberta’s energy sector. After years of constraints, oil producers finally have additional pipeline egress as the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX) entered commercial operations in May. Coastal GasLink provides egress for natural gas producers. We see significant improvements to energy production over the next two years, propelling GDP growth.

Inflation headwinds remain, but easing on rate pivot - While inflation and past interest rate hikes will continue to weigh, the tide is slowly turning. The Bank of Canada's shift towards rate normalisation is expected to continue with further cuts this year and next. These moves are anticipated to bolster confidence and support consumer spending and housing activity in the second half of 2024 and 2025.

Catch-up construction, as population soars - While easing from last year’s record, robust population growth will continue to drive Alberta’s housing activity and spending. Relative housing affordability is expected to encourage continued inflows from other provinces, albeit at a slower rate. The resurgence in home construction stands as a pivotal driver of Alberta's economic improvement in 2024.

Not your typical expansion - Alberta's economic expansion is not the result of the typical energy investment boom. Growth is broadening across multiple sectors as oil and gas investment remains on a lower track. These sectors include hydrogen, technology, biofuels, food manufacturing, carbon capture, aviation and petrochemicals, building on resource strengths and greater emphasis on emissions reduction.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Contango occurs when the futures price of a commodity is higher than the spot price.

Today’s trivia question: What happened in Galveston Bay, Texas on June 19, 1865 that led to the day being known as Juneteenth and declared a U.S. federal holiday in 2021?