“I feel the earth move under my feet,” Carole King

Our December outlook is out! Check it out here.

The economy is entering 2025 with momentum driven by robust oil production, surging home construction, and a recent jump in employment. At the same time, the province has faced rising unemployment as more job seekers come to Alberta and, as in the rest of the country, persistent cost-of-living challenges.

We project Alberta's GDP to continue to outpace the national economy, growing by 2.5% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026. This growth is fueled by strong energy sector performance, emerging sectors like technology and petrochemicals, and continued gains from interprovincial migration.

At ATB economics, we approach a new forecast with two principles in mind:  

• Confidence based on rigour: applying the best information available including detailed current analysis, a macro model tailored to Alberta’s economy, and discussions with industry experts.  
• Humility: recognizing that the world is a complicated place, with events that are very hard to predict. 

For this outlook, an extra dose of humility is warranted given the new wave of geopolitical uncertainty under a Trump presidency. ‘Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst’ is apt for the times.

To account for the uncertainty, we’ve prepared alternate scenarios, including the potential impact of escalating tariffs and trade tensions that would hinder business investment and economic growth. The upside includes minimal trade actions and more major projects proceeding.

As 2024 slides into our collective rearview mirror, our trivia questions for the rest of December are looking back at the most important economic trends of the year. Enjoy our 12 Days of Economic Trivia for 2024.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Rapid population growth has created a need for more housing in Alberta with household formations outpacing new construction. We are forecasting that Alberta will post over 45,000 housing starts in 2025.

Today’s trivia question: In July, a wildfire ravaged the Town of Jasper, claiming 358 of the town's 1,113 structures, including many homes and was listed first on Environment Canada’s 10 most impactful weather stories of 2024. How many visitors enjoyed Jasper National Park in August 2023 compared to August 2024?