In the movie “Field Of Dreams,” a voice tells a farmer played by Kevin Costner “if you build it, he will come.” Costner’s character proceeds to construct a baseball diamond in his corn field and the ghosts of Shoeless Joe Jackson and seven other players from the 1919 Chicago White Sox show up.

The line, often changed to “build it and they will come,” is used to argue that taking the risk to build something will pay off down the road.

What does this have to do with Alberta’s oil production?

It’s a case of “build (the pipeline) and (the barrels) will come.”

The 590,000 barrels per day of nameplate added when the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline was completed last year is the baseball diamond in the corn field. The upward trend in Alberta’s crude oil production to fill up the pipeline is Shoeless Joe showing up.

Crunching the numbers from the latest report from the Alberta Energy Regulator, we find that Alberta’s oil production hit an all time high of 4.2 million barrels per day in November 2024.

Alberta’s oil production has increased in 12 of the 13 months since November 2023 on a year-over-year basis.*

Total production over the first 11 months of last year was 5% (61.5 million barrels) higher than the same period in 2023.

As we discussed yesterday, more of those barrels are ending up in Asia, particularly China. At the same time, U.S. imports of Canadian crude remain strong, hitting a record high last week.

In our latest forecast, we expect oil and gas export volumes to continue to increase this year, albeit at a more moderate pace of 3.3% compared to our estimate of 5% growth last year. While there is some room to bring on even more export capacity through optimization of the existing pipeline network and crude-by-rail options, future oil production in Alberta will once again bump up against transportation constraints as TMX is filled to capacity by 2028.

*Because oil production is highly seasonal, year-over-year comparisons are more useful than tracking month-over-month changes.

Answer to the previous trivia question: At 29% of the national total, B.C. sent the most products to China over the first 11 months of last year followed by Alberta at 23%.

Today’s trivia question: Which province is home to the largest crude oil refinery in Canada? (Hint: It’s not Alberta.)