Ample supply saw the price of Alberta’s natural gas average just $1.44/MMBtu last year—45% lower than the 10-year average.

Production fared better (though exacerbating the supply glut) with Alberta’s marketable natural gas output rising to its highest level since 2009.

Despite the price slump, two key factors are working together to set the stage for a long-term natural gas renaissance in Alberta.

First, natural gas is expected to be a key source of the additional electricity needed to run everything from artificial intelligence data centres to electric vehicles.

Second, the ability to export Canadian natural gas in liquid form to markets outside North America has gone from a pipedream (pun intended) to a reality.

As we’ve talked about previously, liquified natural gas (LNG) export facilities such as those being built on the B.C. coast by LNG Canada, Cedar LNG, and Woodfibre LNG are (finally) going to enable Canadian natural gas to reach energy-thirsty Asian markets. Expected to start exporting this year, the LNG Canada facility will be the first large-scale facility to begin operations in Canada.

This, combined with new U.S. and Mexican LNG export capacity, will tighten supply in North America and, in turn, improve prices. The latter is not great news for consumers, but it will be a major shot in the arm for the industry.

As with many other aspects of the economy right now, the threat of U.S. tariffs could be a spanner in the works. If a U.S. tariff on Canadian natural gas is implemented for an extended period, this would weigh on the demand for Alberta gas and cut into the gains from increased electricity production and exports to Asia. For reference, Alberta sold $7.8 billion of natural gas and natural gas liquids to U.S. customers last year.

Answer to the previous trivia question: In 2006, the premiers of Alberta and B.C. signed the ground-breaking free trade agreement known as The Trade, Investment and Labour Mobility Agreement (TILMA).

Today’s trivia question: In what year was The New West Partnership Trade Agreement signed by the premiers of Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan?